Tridecahedrons and the Probability of Abortion While Using Hormonal Contraception
Calculating the Probability of Abortion on HC Using Research Data
“If Christianity were true, would you become a Christian?”
Christian apologist Frank Turek often asks this question to non-Christians.
Surprisingly, sometimes the answer is no.
When someone irrationally says “no,” it indicates that their reservations about becoming a Christian are not actually from the head, but from the heart.
For some, even if all their questions are answered, even there is compelling evidence, even if something is clearly true, the thought of changing the way they live to reflect this truth is too much. And so they don’t.
For decades there has been controversy and concern about hormonal contraception (HC) working as an abortifacient. Pro-life Protestants want to know:
Is HC causing abortions?
Is so, how often might it be happening?
“If it were true that hormonal contraception was causing abortions, would you speak out against it?
I think many Protestants would answer, “Yes.”
Marta M. S. Calçada, and Anderson M. R. Alves have calculated the probability of abortion in their 2022 paper “Hormonal Contraceptives and Post-fertilization Effects” published in Issues in Law and Medicine.
These authors took data from research papers and developed a formula to calculate the probability of abortion based on different types of hormonal contraception. They accounted for factors such as:
Percentage of ovulation events despite contraceptive use/(woman x year)
Percentage of fecundability of egg released
Cervical mucus effect
Percentage of pre-implantation abortions, independent of contraceptive
use
Percentage of infertility
Percentage of infecundability in ideal conditions of non-sterility nor
physiological problem, maintaining several relationships in the most fertile phase of the woman’s cycle (proximity to the LH peak);
Total number of unwanted pregnancies with contraceptive use, including
post-implantation abortions/(woman x year)
Percentage of unwanted pregnancies not including post-implantation abortions
Percentage of post-implantation abortions
And the results might surprise you…(read more)